Price goes up after Blackrock purchase of BTC

What’s going on?

Since U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs launched, large creations at BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) have become a recurring catalyst: new ETF shares are created, authorized participants buy spot BTC to seed the basket, and circulating liquid supply shrinks—adding upward pressure to price. On days with heavy creations, you’ll often see BTC strength during U.S. hours. On redemption days, the effect can reverse.

ETF mechanics: why flow matters

Creations (inflows)

APs deliver BTC to the trust in exchange for new shares.
That requires spot BTC purchases in the market.
Less BTC floats on exchanges → potential upward price pressure.

Redemptions (outflows)

Shares are returned; the trust releases BTC to APs.
APs may sell BTC → downward price pressure near term.
Net impact depends on size, liquidity, and macro backdrop.

Tip: Flows don’t act in a vacuum—dollar strength, rates, risk sentiment, and leverage conditions can override the signal intraday.

What the data shows (big picture)

Positive flow → higher odds of green days: Heavy IBIT creations often align with BTC upside during U.S. sessions.
Alternating waves: October has seen strong net inflow days as well as net redemption days—price reacts accordingly, but not perfectly.
Longer-term effect: Persistent net inflows can ratchet price higher by soaking up supply; persistent outflows can ease pressure.

For live flow charts, bookmark your preferred dashboard (ETF provider, market data sites, or reputable aggregators).

Nuance & caveats

Correlation ≠ control: Flows amplify the dominant trend; they don’t guarantee direction daily.
Macro swings matter: Geopolitics, yields, and USD can swamp flow impact in the short run.
Latency & inventory: AP hedging, off-exchange liquidity, and internal inventories can smooth the footprint.

Mini flow→price explainer (toy model)

This quick calculator illustrates why large creations can matter. It assumes a simple supply-shock effect (for learning only).

Illustrative upward pressure

This is a teaching visualization, not investment advice. Real markets are more complex.

Get exposure: ETF vs spot (trusted venues)

ETF route (brokerage)

Ticker: IBIT (availability varies by country/broker).

Easy portfolio fit; brokerage custody.
No wallet/network handling.
Management fee; market hours only.

Spot route (exchange)

24/7 trading; on-chain withdrawals.
Self-custody optional for long-term.
Mind network fees and security setup.

Ready to start? Choose a reputable venue and enable 2FA before funding.

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FAQ

Not always. Flows add or remove pressure, but macro moves, leverage, and liquidity can dominate. Expect noise day-to-day.

They’re different forces. ETF flows are immediate supply/demand; halvings are structural supply; macro sets risk appetite. All interact.

ETF fits brokerage workflows and tax lots; spot offers 24/7 trading and self-custody. Many investors use both.

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